By: Robert Sterner
On Sunday, the campaigns of Ted Cruz and John Kasich agreed to work together on several upcoming primaries to stop frontrunner Donald Trump.
In short, Kasich’s campaign is allowing Cruz to run uncontested against Trump in Indiana. Cruz is doing the same for Kasich in both Oregon and New Mexico. Both campaigns are asking their allies and super-PACs to respect the agreement in a statement.
The goal of this agreement is simple: deny Republican front-runner Donald Trump the nomination.
If Trump lacks the 1,237 delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot at the Republican convention, a number of rules come into play. The delegates, in increasing numbers with each ballot, are free to support whomever they choose on the subsequent ballots until a candidate is selected. Cruz and Kasich each believe they can win in a contested convention.
The 57 delegates of Indiana, a winner take all both statewide and by congressional district, could be critical. If Trump wins, even narrowly, the path to a first-ballot nomination is fairly easy; however, a loss could lead to a contested convention.
Currently, Cruz has a 54% chance of winning the Indiana primary according to a forecast by FiveThirtyEight as of April 22. His campaign has over $8 million in cash on hand, and the super-PACs supporting him have over $21 million on hand according to the New York Times. Cruz has just less than a week to campaign in Indiana.
The last time the Republican nominee wasn’t decided in the primaries and a convention vote was necessary was 1976. Sitting President Gerald Ford edged the former Governor of California Ronald Reagan. Ford had just a 43 delegate lead and won only one more state than Reagan heading into the convention. Ford eventually secured the nomination; however, Ford would go on to lose the general election to a relatively unknown former Governor of Georgia, Jimmy Carter.
As of Monday Donald Trump leads the Republican field with 846 delegates. Ted Cruz and John Kasich lag behind with 544 and 149 delegates, respectively.
