By: Omer Qureshi
After over a year since the Republican primary season started, the party has unofficially decided its nominee.
Republican frontrunner Donald Trump has secured his pathway to the Republican nomination for the President of the United States. Trump’s two remaining competitors, Texas Senator Ted Cruz and Ohio Governor John Kasich both officially suspended their bids for the nomination on May 3rd and 4th, 2016, respectively.
Trump has yet to attain the 1,237 delegates he needs to become the official GOP nominee, but without any serious competitors, he will likely clinch before the convention. FiveThirtyEight, a political data analysis website, created a simulation to project how many delegates Trump would obtain, and as of the last primary, they estimate he will finish the cycle with 1,274. 37 more than he needs for a majority.
Historically, after a candidate has clinched their party nomination and/or become the presumptive nominee, they usually move back towards “the center” in order to attract independents and cross-party votes for the general election. Trump, furthering his tendency during this cycle, however, does not seem to be following historical trends.
In an interview with The New York Times, Trump said, “You win the pennant and now you’re in the World Series – you gonna change?”
Trump’s attitude has caused a rift within his party, with many prominent Republican figures either choosing not to attend the party convention or not endorsing Trump.
Among these figures was House Speaker Paul Ryan, who said, “I’m just not ready to back Donald Trump.”
Ryan’s refusal to endorse Trump signals to other Republicans that they may distance themselves from Trump, especially those in competitive races.
Trump’s divisiveness within the GOP signifies the changing values that the Republican electorate holds, some of which conflict with the party message. Whatever the outcome of the general election, the Republican primary and its results marks a paradigm shift within American politics which will be impactful for years to come.
